Updated: July 30, 2024
Note to reader: This is our original post on grading from three years ago. An update in June 2024 gave a new perspective on the future of grading, suggesting that current grading practices will become obsolete.
Original post:
Even without grading, your cards still have value.
- Characteristics
- Popularity
- Origin
- Authenticity
- Rarity or scarcity
- Age
- The represented point in time
- Number of previous owners
- Popularity or fame of original owner or previous owners
- Public interest in the item
- Market interest in the item
- Subject to forgery, fraud, theft
- Others desire having the item
Those value traits reside either in nostalgia or buy and sell markets. However, having your cards graded provides optimal market value, preservation and identification. Grading will also determine if your card is fake or altered. Getting your popular, rare, unique or valuable cards graded is recommended. The sales and trade market for raw cards is large and very active. It’s also full of scammers pedalling non-authentic cards. As a buyer of cards, you should be aware of this and ideally purchase high profile cards that are either graded or from someone with a Verified Seller Certificate or a tokenized card.
There is an on-going debate amongst card collectors about the best grader in North America. They will argue about grading results, grading criteria, slabs, past performance, labeling and turn around time. What they don't mention often is integrity. ~the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness.
Here’s what you should know:
- All graders are in an unregulated market. There is no industry license or certification to participate in grading. There are no audits from third parties to monitor quality or errors. There is no universal standard or even an association of graders to have a forum on managing fakes, labeling, or security.
- Customer service is not great. Some effort is being made to let consumers know which submission month of cards are currently being graded.
- Rates vary based on volume, time or market value.
- Company ownership ranges from publicly traded to private. Some graders have been in business since the early 1990s.
- Some graders equate higher resale value only by market persuasion.
- The look and security of slabs and labels vary by grader.
- Due to the recent attention of a few trading cards selling over $1 million, demand for grading is high and turn around times now are from 2 to 52 weeks. Some graders had to temporarily stop receiving cards.
- The spike in grading volume has also created new grading companies who want in on this multi-million dollar industry.
- The number of human graders has increased which helps deal with the volume but could present inconsistencies if proper quality control measures are not in place.
- New technology is being introduced to speed up the grading process, identify imperfections and track previous condition of resubmissions. This could potentially change a grade or devalue cards that have been graded prior.
- Scrutiny between the relationship of online auction companies and their preferred grading company is getting more attention and growing concern in the marketplace about the grades received and amounts paid.
Read: What should I do with my cards?
Each card will receive its own serial number. While your card might look like it's in great condition, centering on both sides, print quality, surface residue, and slight imperfections in the corners and edges will have an affect on its grade. Don't be disappointed if you get a grade less than 8. Mid to low grade cards are in demand too if you plan to sell it.
How to decide:
- Proximity. Not a big factor because you can ship your insured card anywhere. Cross border services could subject you to duties and tariffs.
- Grading standard. Graders will score a card between 1 and 10 but may have slightly different criteria for each whole grade and a .5 grade. Some graders will have a sub-grade for key criteria such as centering or corners.
- Grading wait period. Unless you have that $1 million+ card, be patient. You've likely been waiting decades already. Faster turn around times come at a premium price.
- Personal collection. If you don't intend to sell your cards, higher market value graders is not a big consideration. You might even experiment with different graders based on proximity, your budget or the look of the slab.
- Market value for reselling. The market dictates the selling price. Don't get too excited about the listing price that you see on buy and sell sites or the cumulative resale value by grader. If you shave off the top 5% of dollar sales, you are likely left with sales of all the other cards under $10,000 per card (subjective observation but you get the point). Many social media card groups will freely give you a grade prediction on your card. If you end up in the top 5%, you may want to consider two or three graders that have a recent track record for high value sales.
- Budget. If you are holding a million dollar plus card, the cost of grading is a low consideration. However, if the average market price for your card is around $200, you will be more selective on your choice. Rates will vary by volume, time and market value. Plus you need to factor in, where applicable, the cost of packaging, shipping, insurance, taxes and duties, listing fees, and transaction fees.
- Don’t listen to the squabble. It will confuse you and there is no end to it. Many of the people with graded cards and many who wish they had graded cards spew rhetoric about graders.
- Origins. Your card is the same card no matter what slab it is in.
Protecting your treasured cards is very important. Adding value and having proof of ownership is equally important. A Web3 COA for your card can showcase your passion for the card with an exclusive story and other digital content as well as provide proof of ownership linked to your Web3 wallet.
Read: Where should I buy and sell cards?.
Here is the list of graders (in no particular order):
Collectors (Collectors Universe; Collectors Holdings):
Before you ship your cards, remove them from their protective case, take pictures of the front and back of the card with your ID in the shot. This could help you to find it or claim a loss if your card is lost or stolen while in transit or with the grader. Buy shipping insurance for your high value cards at a minimum.
The Future of Grading
(added in June 2024)
The future of card grading will be revolutionized by AI and Web3 technologies, eliminating the need for profit-driven, subjective grading companies. Instead, a community-run DAO (decentralized autonomous organization) will manage startup capital and authorized grading agents equipped with specialized tools.
Card collectors will have two grading options:
- Ship the card for AI and forensic analysis, Web3 record, tamper-proof encapsulation, vault option, metaverse gallery option.
- Upload images of the card for AI analysis, receiving an instant raw card score and report.
Both options will first require the submitter to provide photo ID, facial matching to the ID, and proof of card possession. For privacy, this step will be handled by a third party (likely Privado ID). The grader will only receive confirmation that the submitter has passed verification.
The card will be analyzed using AI for eye appeal, condition, and forensic details such as paperboard density, ink and colour density, and the detection of substances like pen ink, smoke, mildew, and drugs. This process will take about 30 seconds and will be free from human subjectivity.
Cards will be encapsulated with security features to prevent swapping, such as engraved serial numbers, NFC tags that deactivate if the case is opened, and tamper indicators. Buyers will be able to scan the card to verify its match with its digital twin, likely stored using Filecoin.
Graded cards will be tokenized using Web3 technology, putting an image and description of the card on-chain for proof of ownership and digital identity. This data will be immutable, allowing the card to be sold or showcased through Web3 marketplaces or applications.
When shipping a graded card to a buyer, Web3 smart contracts will be issued by the postal or courier company. The buyer will make a payment using their Web3 wallet to the contract for the purchase price of the card. The contract will reference the card’s token ID. Once the buyer receives the package, the contract updates, the seller receives payment instantly, and the card's token is transfered to the new owner. If the shipping company loses the package, the seller will automatically receive an insurance payment, and the buyer will have their payment returned.
Grading will transcend the traditional 1 to 10 scale, with AI analyzing thousands of data points. Grades could even be dynamic, adjusting based on the growing population of graded cards. Additionally, submitters may be required to provide yearly images of the card to confirm possession and allow AI to detect any condition changes.
Here’s what your grading report could look like for a Gretzky rookie card. You would scan a QR code or tap an NFC tag to retrieve the report.
Main subject: 1979 O-Pee-Chee #18 Wayne Gretzky, Edmonton Oilers
Versions: 1/1
Sub variant: 3b print quality variant. Ink registration is close to excellent. Magenta doughnut hickey is present on right shoulder. The blue lines print defect on the back of the card are medium to heavy toned for this sub variant.
This is Wayne’s rookie card printed and distributed in Canada in 1979. Topps printed and distributed their Wayne Gretzky rookie in the USA just prior to the O-Pee-Chee’s release.
Initial grading score: 535/1,000
Real time dynamic score: 531/1,000
Annual verification score: 531/1,000
Eye appeal (with scoring adjustments):
Centering front: 61/39. -72
Centering back: 64/36 -91
Corners: Top left - sharp , top right sharp, bottom left - ding, bottom right - ding - 87
Edges: factory cut
Surface: crease, indentation, paper loss, presence of a substance -163
Ink/colour density for half tone areas: 5% dot gain -20
Ink/colour density for solid ink areas: 0% tone gain
Ink register: -32
Size: 63.5mm x 88.9mm x 0.3mm
Forensic (with grading adjustments):
Surface substances: gum residue, finger prints, pen ink. -105 (included in surface score above).
Medium: Paperboard supplied by Fraser Papers, Toronto, Canada. Evidence of compression typically caused from screw down case.
Printing method: Four colour offset
Printing equipment: Roland 800 six colour offset
Number of owners: based on tokenized data there were two previous owners of this card.
Population Report (real-time):
Number of cards with similar score in circulation (within 10 points): 39
Total number of graded cards in circulation: 57,861 encapsulated and tokenized. 102,168 raw.
Market cap of cards in circulation: $7,672,097 USD or 114.95 BTC
Number of fake cards submitted: 5,663
This level of grading could exist by 2030. In the meantime, Sprunger Originals offers a few Web3 elements to help card owners, sellers and buyers.
- Seller & Buyer Verification
- Tokenization of trading cards
- NFC or QR labels to pair the physical card to its Web3 COA
Here's other services to help you manage your collectibles:
- Gretzky rookie card portal. Factual insights and resources for effective card management.
- Sprunger Card Management Manage your trading card collection with confidence and peace of mind.