PSA Population & Value Analysis for Gretzky Rookie Card
This report covers both O-Pee-Chee and Topps cards.
Updated: January 26, 2026
OPC
Topps
Observations on OPC Data
The OPC dataset represents a population report of 14,790 graded cards, broken down by grade levels, including clean grades, half-point grades, and qualifiers. Key insights include:
- Overall Distribution: Grades are skewed toward the mid-range, with the highest concentration around grade 4 (17.87% of total, including 4, 4.5, and 4Q). This is followed by grade 6 (14.92%) and grade 5 (14.18%). Lower grades (1-3, including halves and qualifiers) account for about 33% of the total, mid-grades (4-7) dominate at ~61%, and high grades (8-10) are rare at ~9%.
- Average Grade: Excluding "Auth" (164 cards, or 1.11%), the average numerical grade is approximately 4.58 across 14,626 cards. This suggests OPC cards generally receive moderate grades, possibly due to common production flaws like centering issues.
- Half Grades: There are 1,351 half grades (9.13% of total), predominantly at lower levels—1.5 represents 31.46% of all half grades, with percentages decreasing as grades rise (e.g., 2.5 at 12.44%, up to 8.5 at 4.07%). No 9.5 grades reported.
- Qualifiers: 716 qualifiers (4.84% of total), heavily concentrated in higher grades—8Q accounts for 32.96% of qualifiers (236 cards), 7Q for 17.04% (122), and 6Q for 8.24% (59). This indicates qualifiers often apply to cards that are otherwise high-quality but have specific defects (e.g., off-centering), pulling them from clean high grades.
- Rarity of Top Grades: Only 2 PSA 10s (0.0135% of total), with 9s at 0.89% (including 9Q). Authentics are minimal, suggesting most submissions are gradable but not pristine.
- Trends and Extrapolations: The bell-shaped distribution peaking at mid-grades implies OPC production quality limits high-end outcomes. If submission rates continue, the proportion of high grades (8+) may remain low (~8.6% currently), as qualifiers siphon potential 8-9s. The low PSA 10 rate extrapolates to extreme rarity, estimating perhaps only 1-2 additional 10s per 10,000 new submissions based on current patterns.
Observations on Topps Data
The Topps dataset covers 11,897 graded cards, with a similar structure but notable differences in distribution.
- Overall Distribution: Grades shift higher than OPC, peaking at grade 6 (20.27% of total, including 6, 6.5, and 6Q), followed by 7 (19.33%) and 8 (15.10%). Lower grades (1-3) are only ~16%, mid-grades (4-7) ~67%, and high grades (8-10) ~17%. This indicates better overall condition in Topps submissions.
- Average Grade: Excluding "Auth" (368 cards, or 3.09%), the average numerical grade is approximately 5.70 across 11,529 cards—about 1.12 points higher than OPC, suggesting superior production standards (e.g., better centering and print quality).
- Half Grades: 586 half grades (4.93% of total), less prevalent than in OPC. Distribution is somewhat even but still favors mid-levels—1.5 at 14.68% of half grades, peaking around 4.5 (17.24%), and tapering off (8.5 at 5.80%). No 9.5 grades.
- Qualifiers: 787 qualifiers (6.62% of total), even more skewed to high grades—8Q dominates at 65.44% (515 cards), 7Q at 15.25% (120), and 9Q at 10.17% (80). This highlights that Topps cards often approach high grades but are disqualified by minor flaws, more so than in OPC.
- Rarity of Top Grades: Only 1 PSA 10 (0.0084% of total), with 9s at 1.75% (including 9Q). Authentics are higher proportionally than OPC, possibly indicating more altered or damaged submissions.
- Trends and Extrapolations: The higher peak and average suggest Topps cards are more likely to achieve premium grades. Qualifiers heavily impact 8s, implying that without defects, high-grade populations could be 20-30% larger. Extrapolating, the PSA 10 rarity might persist, with odds of ~1 per 12,000 submissions, reflecting stringent standards for perfection.
Combined Observations on OPC and Topps Data
Combining the datasets provides a total of 26,687 graded cards, allowing for cross-brand comparisons and broader insights. The combined distribution peaks at 6 (17.32%), with a secondary peak at 4 (15.62%). Topps pulls the curve higher, while OPC anchors it lower.
- Average Grade: Excluding Auth (532 cards, 1.99%), the combined average is approximately 5.07 across 26,155 numerical grades—a midpoint reflecting Topps' higher quality offsetting OPC's lower.
- Half Grades: 1,937 total (7.26%), with OPC contributing ~70% despite similar totals, indicating more borderline condition in OPC (e.g., more 1.5-3.5 halves).
- Qualifiers: 1,503 total (5.63%), with Topps at a higher rate (6.62% vs. OPC 4.84%). Combined, ~58% of qualifiers are 8Q, underscoring centering/print issues as a common barrier to clean high grades across brands.
- Rarity of Top Grades: Total PSA 10s: 3 (0.011% combined), with OPC slightly higher rate (0.0135% vs. 0.0084%). High grades (8+): 12.49% combined, but Topps doubles OPC's proportion (17.39% vs. 8.63%).
- Trends and Extrapolations: Topps cards consistently outperform OPC in grade quality, likely due to differences in manufacturing (OPC often has worse centering, leading to more mid-grades and halves). Combined, ~50% of cards fall in 4-6 bands, suggesting market saturation in mid-tier. Extrapolating, if submissions double to ~50,000, expect ~5-7 total PSA 10s, with qualifiers continuing to cap high-end growth at ~10-15%. This rarity drives value for Gretzky rookies, where perfect 10s remain exceptionally scarce across both brands.
Average USD Values for 1979 O-Pee-Chee (OPC) Wayne Gretzky Rookie Card (PSA Graded) Based on 2025 Sales
These averages are calculated from reported public auction and eBay sales in 2025. Note that higher grades like PSA 9 are based on major auction sales, while lower grades draw from a mix of eBay transactions. No PSA 10 sales were reported in 2025 (only two exist globally, with the last major sale predating 2025). No qualifiers or additional half grades beyond 1.5 were found in the data. Limited sales for some grades may affect representativeness.
| PSA Grade | Average Price (USD) | Number of Sales | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $562 | 1 | - |
| 1.5 | $891 | 2 | - |
| 2 | $783 | 4 | - |
| 3 | $1,051 | 3 | - |
| 4 | $945 | 4 | - |
| 5 | $3,431 | 2 | High variance due to one premium sale. |
| 6 | $3,021 | 3 | - |
| 7 | $2,025 | 1 | - |
| 8 | $14,600 | 1 | - |
| 9 | $136,923 | 3 | From major auctions in Feb, Apr, and June 2025. |
Data primarily sourced from PSA Auction Prices Realized and compiled sales reports.
Average USD Values for 1979 Topps Wayne Gretzky Rookie Card (PSA Graded) Based on 2025 Sales
Averages derived from 2025 eBay and auction sales. No PSA 9 or 10 sales were identified in 2025 (PSA 10s are rare but have sold for around $1.2M in prior years). No qualifiers, Auth, or half grades beyond 1.5 appeared in the data. Some grades show variance due to outliers.
| PSA Grade | Average Price (USD) | Number of Sales | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | $462 | 1 | - |
| 2 | $562 | 2 | - |
| 3 | $661 | 1 | - |
| 4 | $719 | 3 | - |
| 5 | $1,528 | 4 | Influenced by one higher-end sale. |
| 6 | $1,476 | 5 | - |
| 7 | $2,008 | 3 | - |
| 8 | $4,550 | 3 | - |
Data sourced from PSA Auction Prices Realized and eBay transactions.
Grade Value Implications for OPC Data
Using the population data for OPC and approximate market values derived from recent 2025-2026 sales (e.g., PSA 10 ~$4M based on historical escalation, PSA 9 ~$140K, PSA 8 ~$17K, PSA 7 ~$4.4K, with lower grades scaled from sales like PSA 5 ~$1.6K, and adjustments for halves ~average of adjacent grades, qualifiers ~60% of clean), we can calculate estimated total market value and distribution.
The total estimated market value of all graded OPC cards is $61,151,700. This implies an average value per card of approximately $4,135, but with extreme skew toward higher grades due to rarity.
| Grade Band | Estimated Value Contribution | % of Total Value | Pop % (from data) | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auth | $65,600 | 0.11% | 1.11% | Minimal value; authentics are low-demand unless for budget collectors. |
| 1 | $583,080 | 0.95% | 6.73% | Low grades hold little value despite decent pop; implies poor ROI for low-condition submissions. |
| 1.5 | $235,400 | 0.38% | 2.91% | Halves add marginal value, but rarity in qualifiers (e.g., 5 cards at ~$330 each) drags average down. |
| 2 | $610,600 | 1.00% | 9.53% | Value starts low; high pop dilutes demand, implying values stay flat unless market surges. |
| 3 | $1,195,740 | 1.95% | 12.86% | Mid-low grades contribute little; qualifiers (42 at ~$420) reduce potential by ~40%. |
| 4 | $2,454,200 | 4.01% | 17.87% | Mid-grades begin to accumulate value, but high pop (2,643 total) caps upside at ~$1K average. |
| 5 | $3,123,200 | 5.11% | 14.18% | Similar to grade 4; halves and qualifiers (127 + 45) imply ~20% value loss from defects. |
| 6 | $5,131,000 | 8.39% | 14.92% | Transition to premium; value jumps, but qualifiers (59 at $1.5K) siphon ~$59K from clean potential. |
| 7 | $6,719,680 | 10.99% | 11.37% | High-mid grades show premium (2.5x grade 6); heavy qualifiers (122 at $2.6K) imply 15% of band pop but only 10% value. |
| 8 | $16,653,200 | 27.23% | 7.63% | Major value driver; halves (55 at $65K) boost, but qualifiers (236 at $10.2K) represent 21% pop loss in value. |
| 9 | $16,380,000 | 26.79% | 0.89% | Extreme rarity (0.89% pop) yields 27% value; qualifiers (35 at $84K) add but at discount. |
| 10 | $8,000,000 | 13.09% | 0.01% | Ultra-rare (0.0135%); implies exponential premium (~28x PSA 9), driving collector frenzy. |
Key Implications: The distribution shows value concentration in grades 8+ (67% of total value from 8.63% pop), highlighting how low pop in high grades creates massive premiums (e.g., PSA 10 is 4,000x PSA 1). Qualifiers, skewed to 8-9 (69% of qualifiers), reduce overall value by ~$3.5M (estimated if clean). Mid-grades (4-7: 58% pop but 28% value) imply market saturation, keeping values stable but low. Extrapolating, if pop grows 10%, value could rise 5-10% in highs due to scarcity, but mids remain depressed.
Grade Value Implications for Topps Data
Using similar methodology with Topps-specific values (e.g., PSA 10 ~$1.2M, PSA 9 ~$45K, PSA 8 ~$6K, PSA 7 ~$2.5K, PSA 6 ~$1.5K from sales, halves/qualifiers adjusted), the total estimated market value is $31,184,240, implying an average of ~$2,620 per card—lower than OPC due to higher average grades and less scarcity premium.
| Grade Band | Estimated Value Contribution | % of Total Value | Pop % (from data) | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auth | $73,600 | 0.24% | 3.09% | Negligible; higher auth pop vs. OPC implies more damaged submissions, low value. |
| 1 | $49,980 | 0.16% | 1.42% | Bottom-tier; low pop and value suggest few low-grade submissions worthwhile. |
| 1.5 | $30,100 | 0.10% | 0.72% | Minimal; no qualifiers here, but halves add little lift. |
| 2 | $145,600 | 0.47% | 3.52% | Low impact; qualifiers (10 at $240) barely register. |
| 3 | $492,624 | 1.58% | 6.85% | Starting accumulation; value aligns with pop, no major premium. |
| 4 | $1,036,016 | 3.32% | 12.82% | Mid-grade anchor; higher average value than OPC equivalent due to better condition distribution. |
| 5 | $1,943,826 | 6.23% | 15.12% | Peak mid-value; halves/qualifiers dilute by ~15%, implying grading flaws common. |
| 6 | $3,533,994 | 11.33% | 20.27% | Strong contributor; pop peak here (20%) captures 11% value, showing efficiency. |
| 7 | $5,422,500 | 17.39% | 19.33% | High-mid premium emerges (1.6x grade 6); qualifiers heavy (120 at $1.5K). |
| 8 | $9,336,000 | 29.94% | 15.10% | Top value driver; halves (34 at $25K) and qualifiers (515 at $3.6K) imply 30% value from defects. |
| 9 | $7,920,000 | 25.40% | 1.75% | Rarity boost (1.75% pop = 25% value); qualifiers (80 at $27K) add at discount. |
| 10 | $1,200,000 | 3.85% | 0.01% | Rare (0.0084%); lower premium vs. OPC (~27x PSA 9), reflecting easier grading. |
Key Implications: Value skews to 8+ (59% value from 17% pop), less extreme than OPC due to higher high-grade pop. Qualifiers dominate 8 (65%), implying ~$2.6M value loss if clean. Mid-grades (4-7: 67% pop but 38% value) suggest better overall condition but less upside. Extrapolating, 10% pop growth could add 15% value in highs, but Topps lags OPC in premium due to distribution.